New vehicle prices may have stayed flat in March, but beneath the surface lies a growing concern for budget-conscious car buyers: the slow disappearance of new cars priced under $30,000.
According to Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in March came in at $47,462, showing little movement month-over-month or year-over-year. While the market appeared calm, it was anything but beneath the surface—buyers surged into dealerships, trying to get ahead of potential price hikes tied to new auto tariffs.
Why Buyers Are Rushing to Dealers: With looming trade policies and tariffs adding uncertainty to the market, many consumers aren’t waiting for prices to rise—they’re buying now. “Some form of tariff is going to stick around, for certain,” said Erin Keating, Executive Analyst at Cox Automotive. “The genie’s out of the bottle.”
The current 25% tariff on imported vehicles is already affecting supply chains and inventory planning. And although there’s a temporary 90-day pause in tariff escalation, most analysts believe it’s a short-term reprieve.
Incentives Are Flat—But Still Better Than Last Year: Manufacturers held incentive offers steady in March, matching February’s 7.0% of ATP, but those deals are still more generous than a year ago, when the average incentive was 6.7% of ATP. The average incentive value last month was $3,339 per vehicle, providing some relief to buyers navigating record-high pricing.
Brand-by-Brand Breakdown: Who’s Up, Who’s Down
While overall pricing may have leveled out, not all brands saw the same trends in March:
- Infiniti and Porsche posted the largest year-over-year ATP increases, up 18.9% and 11.5%, respectively.
- Jeep (-10.6%), Ram (-5.8%), and Mercedes-Benz (-4.7%) saw notable price drops, which could reflect dealer discounting or shifting demand.
Interestingly, most volume brands still posted year-over-year gains, indicating the broader market remains strong despite economic headwinds.
The Disappearing $30K New Car: Here’s the number that should get everyone’s attention: only 26 new models had ATPs below $30,000 in March, making up just 14% of total U.S. vehicle sales.
This marks a significant shift for a segment that once defined mainstream affordability. Vehicles like the Chevy Trax, Kia Soul, Mazda3, and Nissan Sentra are still hovering around the $25K–$30K range, but they are increasingly vulnerable to tariffs—especially those assembled overseas.
The now-discontinued Mitsubishi Mirage was the last new car in the U.S. with an ATP under $20,000. With that option off the table, first-time buyers and budget-focused families have fewer and fewer new vehicles to choose from.
What to Expect Moving Forward: With tariffs expected to remain a fixture—and potentially increase—buyers can expect price creep on lower-priced models as inventory tightens and new shipments roll in under revised cost structures. As Keating notes, “You’re not going to see a $30,000 vehicle suddenly become $37,000 overnight, but the pressure will be there—and brands may only be able to absorb so much of that cost.”
Bottom Line: Act Now If You’re Shopping Under $30K: If you’re in the market for a new vehicle and trying to stay under that $30,000 mark, now is the time to act. Once current inventory is gone, finding affordable new cars could become significantly more difficult, especially if tariffs remain in place and incentives taper off.
Before you head to the dealership, do yourself a favor and check out Quotes.EverymanDriver.com. This free tool gives you instant access to real-time dealer pricing on both new and used vehicles in your area. Thousands of shoppers use it every day to compare offers, find exclusive incentives, and save hundreds—if not thousands—of dollars on their next vehicle.
